The world still lingers just shy of a full-out pandemic, according to World Health Organization officials. While confirmed cases of a new influenza strain and related hospitalizations in the United States continue to rise, no new deaths have been reported.
"This is the time for us to prepare and be ready," said Michael Ryan, WHO's director of Global Alert and Response, at a press briefing this morning in Geneva.
Ryan shared updates on the international portrait of the current H1N1 influenza outbreak, saying that confirmed cases continue to grow worldwide. Ryan said the illness has struck 15 countries, with a total of 615 cases and 17 deaths.
WHO is calling the virus by its scientific name rather than the nickname "swine flu." The virus has mutated into a form that is unrelated to animals and passes easily from person to person.
WHO's global alert remains at level 5, which is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
The highest level is Phase 6, which indicates that a global pandemic is underway.
At a noontime press conference in Atlanta, Anne Schuchat, interim deputy director for Science and Public Health Program at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said there are 160 confirmed U.S. cases in 21 states. The median age is 17, but flu patients range in age from 1 to 81 years. Schuchat said the majority of cases are younger than 20. She also confirmed that there have been a total of 13 hospitalizations.
The Associated Press is reporting a higher number of cases, based on information from a variety of sources: 717 worldwide and 172 in the United States.
Schuchat says caution is advised, even though no more than one death in the last week has been reported in the United States. "While reports are optimistic somewhat, we can't let down our vigilance down," she said. "We are acting actively and aggressively. Our highest priority is the health and safety of the American population."
Answering a query that's been thrown out to the CDC again and again this past week, Schuchat said about one-third of cases are linked to Mexico. "The majority aren't linked to Mexico. We do think there's sustained transmission," she said.
Health officials are still unable to say how severe or mild this pandemic may be, WHO's Ryan says that based on the disease activity of past outbreaks, it appears "like a patchwork" and that development in any given country at any given time can vary.
Schuchat echoed some of Ryan's comments today, saying that local health officials will be calling the shots at the community and regional levels. "We want to respect school authorities" and other leaders at the local levels," said Schuchat.
Ryan said, "Each country will take their own actions." He said the WHO is in the process of developing guidelines for local leaders to help them determine if mass gatherings — such as conferences, sports events, and concerts — are advisable in their areas.
More medication is on the way to those in need, or who may have potential needs. The WHO, working with partners around the world, has begun to dispatch 2.4 million doses of antiviral medications to 72 countries, Ryan said. "We target the poorest countries with the greatest need," Ryan said. "We believe at this point it's important all countries have access to antiviral treatment."
Ryan said his staff is tired, but they are getting the needed rest to stay on top of issues. "This does create stress. We are resting our staff. We know this may be a long haul," he said.
Both the WHO and CDC continue to work with health officials at all levels to evaluate the disease's severity and spread, said Ryan. "Good preparedness will help us mitigate a possible pandemic's effects," Ryan said.
Developments around the world include:
•No new deaths from swine flu were reported overnight in Mexico's capital for the first time since the emergency was declared a week ago, said Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard.
Ebrard said the city had expected exponential growth in the number of persons complaining of swine flu symptoms, and that the outbreak seems to be slowing instead.
•In Hong Kong, officials quarantined 350 people inside a hotel after a guest came down with the first reported case of the virus in Asia. The ailing guest, a tourist from Mexico, was hospitalized in stable condition.
•South Korea reported Asia's second confirmed case — a woman just back from Mexico.
•France reported its first two confirmed cases on Friday. French Health Minister Roselyne Bachelot said the patients, a 49-year-old man and a 24-year-old woman, both recently returned from Mexico. They have been hospitalized at two Paris hospitals and are doing well, she said.
Bachelot also said another patient hospitalized at a third Paris hospital likely has the virus, but it has not been officially confirmed yet. Bachelot said all three had received anti-viral treatments.
WHO is working on creating a vaccine against the H1N1 virus, says Marie-Paul Kieny, WHO's Director of the Initiative for Vaccine Research.
"Vaccines are an extremely effective protection against influenza," she says. In the case of seasonal influenza, vaccines protect millions of people each year against death. Therefore, it is "critically important" to create a vaccine against the H1N1 virus, she says.
However, that takes time. Testing by the CDC has shown that the flu virus for next year's seasonal influenza, which is currently in the early stages of production, does not provide protection against this newly-evolved strain.
Creating a new flu vaccine from scratch will take between four to six months and there's really no way to speed up the process and still make it safe and ensure the vaccine is effective, Kieny says.
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